Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.025226 0.028669 0.032438 0.036875 0.041964 0.047623 0.054403
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.019387 0.023940 0.029379 0.036377 0.045172 0.055900 0.070039
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.016276 0.021234 0.027511 0.036082 0.047546 0.062439 0.083400
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.014546 0.019852 0.026898 0.037006 0.051243 0.070745 0.099763
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.012811 0.018163 0.025563 0.036633 0.052935 0.076306 0.112796
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.011898 0.017464 0.025448 0.037861 0.056902 0.085376 0.131875
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.010485 0.015858 0.023814 0.036604 0.056936 0.088487 0.142086
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.009462 0.014712 0.022720 0.036001 0.057831 0.092901 0.154744
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.008415 0.013415 0.021249 0.034615 0.057261 0.094818 0.163353
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.008065 0.013188 0.021436 0.035920 0.061239 0.104620 0.186636
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.007741 0.012966 0.021596 0.037176 0.065228 0.114819 0.211815
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.007438 0.012745 0.021729 0.038377 0.069217 0.125394 0.238936
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.006871 0.012030 0.020968 0.037948 0.070265 0.130846 0.257200
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.006368 0.011383 0.020272 0.037571 0.071379 0.136559 0.276779
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.005927 0.010809 0.019648 0.037256 0.072554 0.142474 0.297467
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.005699 0.010606 0.019688 0.038212 0.076327 0.153957 0.331438
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.005322 0.010087 0.019081 0.037827 0.077318 0.159814 0.353820
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.005174 0.009995 0.019288 0.039097 0.081884 0.173694 0.396181
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.004751 0.009326 0.018300 0.037796 0.080802 0.175199 0.409845
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.004438 0.008853 0.017663 0.037173 0.081128 0.179837 0.431594
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.004071 0.008240 0.016692 0.035739 0.079487 0.179810 0.441811
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.003998 0.008231 0.016976 0.037089 0.084354 0.195462 0.493890
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.003921 0.008209 0.017227 0.038388 0.089237 0.211705 0.549852